Trade Idea

One of the fun things to do as a baseball fan is to pretend you’re the General Manager of a team and think of trades that you would make.

“I think I got it. How 'bout this? How 'bout this? We trade Jim Leyritz and Bernie Williams, for Barry Bonds, huh? Whadda ya think? That way you have Griffey and Bonds, in the same outfield! Now you got a team!” -George Costanza (1996)

That trade didn’t make much sense for the Pirates, but I think I’ve come up with a trade idea that makes some sense for the Cubs and the Brewers.

Carlos Zambrano, Derrek Lee, and Tyler Colvin for Prince Fielder (and possibly a RP not named Latroy).

Here’s why I think it might work:

Zambrano: It appears they have made it clear (that doesn’t sound right) that of all their contracts that are tradable, Zambrano’s is the one they think they would miss the least. They could get by with Dempster, Lilly, and Wells anchoring the rotation. If… no, when Silva falters, the Cubs still have other options like Sean Marshall to plug into the rotation. Zambrano would have to waive his no-trade clause, but at a chance to start again on a decent young team located close enough to Chicago that he wouldn’t have to pick up and move everything, he might bite. Oh, and he could stick it to the Cubs for not wanting him in their rotation anymore. My bets are he’d have a heck of a 2010 season for the Brewers if this happened. He would also fit well in a rotation that is pretty awful once you get past Gallardo. With a 1-2 punch of Gallardo and Zambrano, now you’ve got something.

Lee: Cub fans love Derrek Lee. He’s a really good guy and a fan favorite. He’s also getting old and it won’t be long before his numbers start showing it. But he’s still a terrific defensive first baseman and an above average hitter. He’d fit the hole left by Fielder in the Brewers lineup very well and would thrive hitting in front of Braun. Lee is in the final year of his contract, so this would give the Brewers a great 1B for the rest of the season and then some freedom on what to do at that position next year. With the emergence of Casey McGehee, the Brewers could always move him to 1B next year and give their prospect Matt Gamel a full-time shot at 3B.

Colvin: He’s a great young hitter, but unfortunately, the Cubs OF is jammed up with contracts beyond this year. Soriano will be clogging up LF for a long time, Byrd signed a 3 year deal this offseason, and Fukudome is signed through 2011. None of those guys are going anywhere. The four man rotation has been working for the Cubs so far, but they’re going to need to move forward with a set lineup at some point. And let’s be honest, Colvin will be a better fit for the Brewers 3rd OF spot than Jim Edmonds.

So why would the Brewers want to trade their star 1B? Well… money. Ryan Howard just signed a 5 year extension with the Phillies yesterday that will pay him $25 million a year. The Brewers don’t have that kind of money. And it’s an easy assumption that Fielder will demand at least $20 million a year. Look at their numbers:

Fielder: 26 years old (next week) Over his first 4 seasons, averaged: .292 BA, 39.5 HR, 110 RBI, 95 R, 3 SB, 130 K's, 86 BB, and averages 159 games a year.

Howard: 30 years old. Over his first 4 full seasons, averaged: .277 BA, 49.5 HR, 143 RBI, 102 R, 2 SB, 191 K's, 92 BB, and averages 156 games a year.

Fielder is going to hit for a higher average and strike out way less. Howard is going to hit more home runs and drive more guys in (though you could argue that in the Cubs lineup, Fielder may drive in more runs). Both guys have about the same number of runs scored, walks, and games played. Fielder is 4 years younger, however. That’s important to a Cubs team that is getting old fast.

The Brewers aren’t going to be able to pay Fielder what he will want, and Fielder will be able to get it from someone. They’re also not going to want him to just walk away without getting something in return. The Cubs could offer a package that might make it worth it for the Brewers. Zambrano’s contract may be too high for the Brewers, so the Cubs might have to eat some of his salary. But as great as Derrek Lee has been, I don’t think the Cubs can afford to sign him for over $10 million a year for another couple of years when their other biggest hitters (Ramirez and Soriano) are getting older as well. Putting Fielder at 1B would give the Cubs the left handed hitter in the middle of the lineup that they have been looking for. It’d also give them a new core of position players to build around: Fielder, Soto, Theriot, Castro.

For the Brewers, this allows them to strengthen their starting pitching and keeps their core of other young positions players together: Braun, Weeks, Escobar, Hart, McGehee. Adding Derrek Lee to that mix for the rest of 2010 and possibly beyond and having Gallardo/Zambrano combination at the top of the rotation now makes you a legitimate player in the NL Central.

Thoughts?

-John Mark