Tuesday, April 27, 2010

My Zambrano Theory

The Cubs want to trade Carlos Zambarno. I'm convinced of it.

Don't get me wrong, I think the Cubs like Zambrano and think he's a valuable pitcher. But there's a little problem. Actually, 90 million of them.

The Cubs are loaded with big, bad contracts.


Soriano is making $19 million a year with 4 more years left on his contract. He’s not going anywhere.
Fukudome is making $14 million this year. Still has another year left.
Lee comes off the books after this year, but seems like a bargain at $13.25 million.
Ramirez can opt out, but is making $16.75 million this season.
Byrd signed a 3 year, $15 million contract. Not looking so bad right about now.
Grabow is making $2.7 million for the next 3 years. Yikes.
Dempster makes $13.5 million a year.
Lilly makes $13 million a year.
Silva makes $12.75 million a year. (in exchange for Bradley)

Out of all the guys with the big contracts, Zambrano is probably the most tradable. There are always teams looking for starting pitching, especially durable starting pitchers. You know what you're going to get with Carlos. He's going to pitch 200 innings a year and have an ERA in the mid 3's. Even in the years he has gone on the DL, he still reaches 170 innings.

The problem is, he has a no-trade clause. How could the Cubs get him to waive that?


Zambrano was then asked if in his mind he was still a starter.

"Yeah, that's what [Cubs manager] Lou [Piniella] said, that's what we agreed [upon]," Zambrano said. "They are looking for a setup man. That's what they told me. I don't think I'll be here [in the bullpen] too long in this role. But I will be there when they need me."

On Saturday, Zambrano got the final out in the seventh inning before allowing one run on two hits with one strikeout and one walk in the eighth inning of the Cubs' 5-1 win over the Brewers.

"I felt good, that's it," was Zambrano's only comment after the game.

I’ll give Carlos credit, he’s been a team player with this so far. But if the Cubs haven’t made a move and put him back in the rotation by the end of May, Carlos isn’t one to keep quiet. He’s not going to be happy. He’s going to want to start again, and if that means waiving a no-trade clause in order to do so… well, I think he would. Perhaps that’s what management is counting on. All things being equal, I think they would want to keep Carlos. He’s a good player and the fans love him. But the Cubs are spending too much money on a team that is just above average, at best. In today’s free agent market, the Cubs could get a whole lot more bang for their buck than Zambrano for $17.5 million a year or so. Perhaps the front office feels that of all the tradable contracts, the starting pitching position is where they have the most depth.

We know the Yankees
inquired about Zambrano this past winter. I bet if they inquired again, the asking price would be a lot lower.

Remember the Seinfeld where George’s boss wanted to fire him when they found out he wasn’t disabled? George realized that as long as he showed up to work, they would have to continue to pay him because he was under contract so they tried turning the heat up on him and boarded his office up one day? Well I think this is the Cubs attempt to board up the starting rotation.

Who is going to balk first?

2 comments:

  1. If "the Cubs could get a whole lot more bang for their buck than Zambrano for $17.5 million a year or so," then so could 29 other teams. If then he's not worth $17.5 million, then the Cubs will eat salary to part with him. The amount they eat is added cost to whomever they get. Let's not forget that the Cubs are in business to make money, not win at all costs. As long as Wrigley continues to be sold out and Comcast and WGN continue to pay the fees they pay for broadcast rights, significant additions to the payroll will not be made. It's true they have made some bad investments the last few years, but they also cannot just do a Willie Stargell "time-out" on those investments at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Call me nieve, but I still believe the Cubs ownership has a real desire to win. I'm excited that the Ricketts have taken over. It appears that they intend to keep the payroll where it is if not allow it to increase. Their focus seems to be on how to maximize their ability to bring more money in to cover the payroll through better use of advertising, marketing, etc.

    While I agree the bottom line is always going to be the dollar, I think people have started to realize that as much money as they can bring in with a loser on the field, a playoff caliber Cubs team is quite a cash cow.

    ReplyDelete


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