Fun with Numbers

Today we are playing with numbers to figure out what’s going on with the Cubs. I’ll admit that I was wrong about the Astros/Cubs series this weekend. I had predicted that the Astros would get their first win of the season against the Cubs in Wrigley. However, the now red hot Astros (that sounds hilarious) managed to beat St. Louis in the final game of their series before coming in and tricking the Cubs into losing 2 one run games to them this weekend. What we learned this weekend is that the Astros are really, really bad. And what was confirmed yet again was that the Cubs can and will lose to anyone.

My initial feeling after watching the Cubs this year is that it seems like the offense has been struggling. I remember thinking that after last year with so many of the Cubs good hitters having crappy seasons (minus Derrek Lee), there was no way that they could all be so bad again this year. Early indications are I was wrong. Here’s what I found looking at the stats:

Runs per game NL Central:
Milwaukee- 5.08 RPG (thankfully, they’re going to need about 10 a game to overcome their pitching staff. Doug Davis was spotted a 10-0 lead in the first inning yesterday and didn’t get the win.)
St Louis- 4.58 RPG
Pittsburgh- 4.41 RPG (why are the Pirates scoring more runs per game than the Cubs?)
Cubs- 4.333 RPG
Cincinnati- 4.07 RPG
Houston- 2.33 RPG (Dear Lord)

Hitting:
Fontenot- .321
Baker- .313
Soto- .308
Fukudome- .306
Hill- .300
Lee- .282
Soriano- .263
Nady- .250
Byrd- .244
Theriot- .235
Ramirez- .170

Well crap. Your two part time 2B are the team’s leading hitters and the team’s best hitter has the worst batting average. Soto has been coming along, though you can count on a drop in average for the top 5 players on that list. But the bottom 6 should all hit better, too. So... back to square one.

Pitching:

Starters:
Dempster- 3.15, 22 K’s in 20 IP
Zambrano- 9.45, 17 K’s, 20 Hits in 13.1 IP
Silva- 0.69, 0 BB in 13 IP
Wells- 2.92 ERA
Gorzelanny- 1.93 ERA

Total Starters ERA:
68 IP, 28 ER—3.70
Take out Zambrano’s first start, 2.69.

The starters have been great, and this is without Theodore Roosevelt Lilly. Dempster is probably pitching about how he will. Zambrano had the abomination that was his first start, then pitched pretty well in Cincinnati, and then struggled against Milwaukee but pitched well enough on a day when the wind was blowing out so hard that Wrigley played like a Little League field. Silva—this can’t last. I don’t think Wells is going to have a sub 3 ERA all season, and Gorzelanny certainly isn’t going to have a sub 2 ERA. In other words, we just wasted 2 weeks of great starting pitching. Here’s how:

Relievers:
Marshall- 2.25
Marmol- 1.35
Grabow- 7.71
Berg- 6.23
Russell- 0.00
Samardzija- 16.20
Gray- 9.00
Caridad- 13.50

Total Relievers ERA:
37 IP, 23 ER—5.59


Overall, the Cubs are giving up 4.37 runs a game and scoring 4.33 runs a game.

Conclusion: With these numbers, it is no surprise that the Cubs have a 5-7 record. But really, if you take out the first game of the season where they were beat 16-5 and the pitching staff gave up 14 earned runs over 8 IP, now the numbers look like this: Cubs are giving up 3.43 Runs per game since Game 2 of the season while scoring 4.27 Runs per game. Outscoring your opponents 4.27-3.43 over the last 11 games should not yield a 5-6 record. But isn’t this always the Cubs story? They lose the games they should win. Even the numbers can’t help the Cubs.

The Detroit Tigers have been outscored 61-58 this year and have a 7-5 record.
The Washington Nationals have been outscored 77-60 and have a 6-6 record. Huh?
The New York Mets have been outscored by one run this season, but are 4-8.
And with the most confusing stat, the Pittsburgh Pirates have been outscored 75-53 and are 7-5.

The numbers will all average themselves out for the most part. Soon the Pirates will start losing a lot of games. So will the Nationals. And I believe the Cubs best hitters will start hitting better while the Cubs worst hitters will start hitting worse. The starters will not be this good all year but Zambrano will pitch better, Dempster will continue to pitch about like this (though his K rate is probably a little inflated right now), Wells will be solid, and Silva/Gorzelanny will start a “who can suck less” contest to stay in the rotation when Lilly comes back, hopefully this weekend. The bullpen- bad, bad, bad. And really, I don’t see any good solutions except to hope that the starters can go 6-7 innings every time out and then hope Grabow pitches better and whoever gets sent to the bullpen between Silva/Gorzelanny can get the ball to Marmol. Bringing in anyone else is going to be big trouble.

No need to panic yet, but the early indicators are what we suspected: The Cardinals are the best team in the NL Central, and the Cubs should be able to beat out the rest of the division for 2nd place. The Cubs only chance is to stay as close as possible to the Cardinals and either hope they can pick someone up by the trade deadline or hope the Cardinals have some injuries to deal with. That’s right, we are only 12 games in and I already am putting my hopes in injuries to Cardinals players.

Crap.

John Mark