My Friday Links

A changing of the guard for Cubs fans used to owners who only see dollar signs? George Will thinks so, but really only time will tell.

Has Lou gone soft? Or is the guy just tired?

The Cubs might win a trophy this year, no not this one, but the one they are talking about here. They couldn't even get a picture or rendering of the thing?! And is it the same BP sponsoring this that also gave us this recently? I thought it was a joke when I first heard about it, like those useless trophies they give to the winner of a 2nd rate college football game.

I mean do they really need the "camouflaged jersey-vest"?! Do you need to hide from the skeet?

As long as we win, I could care less where the pitcher hits.

-Steve

Best Caption Contest!

Add your caption to this instant classic:

-John Mark

Even Montreal Couldn't Contain These Nationals

Record (10-12)

Remember when I said the Cubs should take 2 of 3 from the Nationals and if they didn’t it’d be disappointing, but not surprising? Well… they didn’t. And it was very, very disappointing.

The Cubs took care of Game 1, but Livan Hernandez confused Cubs hitters for most of Game 2 and the Nationals evened the series. Yesterday’s game was the worst.

Dempster ended up pitching a pretty great game, going 8 innings and only giving up 4 hits. However, the two home runs he gave up ended up hurting him. Here’s the two stats that tell you pretty much all you need to know about the game:

Nationals:

Team Runners in Scoring Position: 1 for 1

Team Left on Base: 2

Cubs:

Team Runners in Scoring Position: 1 for 12

Team Left on Base: 11

Wow. The Nationals had one at bat with a man in scoring position, and they capitalized. The Cubs had 12 (!) at bats and had one hit. The Cubs scored 2 runs while getting 9 hits and 4 walks. The Nationals scored 3 runs while getting 4 hits and 1 walk. Not good. It was a very hard game to listen to.

Derrek Lee is continuing his slide and is now hitting .203. Ramirez is sitting at .155.

The Cubs start a four game series at home against Arizona today. I’ll be attending the final game on Sunday, so I’m looking forward to that despite the forecast of rain. Let’s do some predictions for today:

Lilly:

6 IP, 6 Hits, 3 ER, 5 K’s, 1 BB

Derrek Lee: 2 for 4, HR, 2 RBI’s

Cubs are going to win this one, 6-4.

-John Mark

**UPDATE: The wind is howling out today... could turn into a home run derby. Probably doesn't bode well for the Cubs. (1:04 PM)

-Welp, I was right about the Home Run Derby. 3 Diamondback home runs already. 6-1 Arizona in the 5th. (2:48 PM)

Trade Idea

One of the fun things to do as a baseball fan is to pretend you’re the General Manager of a team and think of trades that you would make.

“I think I got it. How 'bout this? How 'bout this? We trade Jim Leyritz and Bernie Williams, for Barry Bonds, huh? Whadda ya think? That way you have Griffey and Bonds, in the same outfield! Now you got a team!” -George Costanza (1996)

That trade didn’t make much sense for the Pirates, but I think I’ve come up with a trade idea that makes some sense for the Cubs and the Brewers.

Carlos Zambrano, Derrek Lee, and Tyler Colvin for Prince Fielder (and possibly a RP not named Latroy).

Here’s why I think it might work:

Zambrano: It appears they have made it clear (that doesn’t sound right) that of all their contracts that are tradable, Zambrano’s is the one they think they would miss the least. They could get by with Dempster, Lilly, and Wells anchoring the rotation. If… no, when Silva falters, the Cubs still have other options like Sean Marshall to plug into the rotation. Zambrano would have to waive his no-trade clause, but at a chance to start again on a decent young team located close enough to Chicago that he wouldn’t have to pick up and move everything, he might bite. Oh, and he could stick it to the Cubs for not wanting him in their rotation anymore. My bets are he’d have a heck of a 2010 season for the Brewers if this happened. He would also fit well in a rotation that is pretty awful once you get past Gallardo. With a 1-2 punch of Gallardo and Zambrano, now you’ve got something.

Lee: Cub fans love Derrek Lee. He’s a really good guy and a fan favorite. He’s also getting old and it won’t be long before his numbers start showing it. But he’s still a terrific defensive first baseman and an above average hitter. He’d fit the hole left by Fielder in the Brewers lineup very well and would thrive hitting in front of Braun. Lee is in the final year of his contract, so this would give the Brewers a great 1B for the rest of the season and then some freedom on what to do at that position next year. With the emergence of Casey McGehee, the Brewers could always move him to 1B next year and give their prospect Matt Gamel a full-time shot at 3B.

Colvin: He’s a great young hitter, but unfortunately, the Cubs OF is jammed up with contracts beyond this year. Soriano will be clogging up LF for a long time, Byrd signed a 3 year deal this offseason, and Fukudome is signed through 2011. None of those guys are going anywhere. The four man rotation has been working for the Cubs so far, but they’re going to need to move forward with a set lineup at some point. And let’s be honest, Colvin will be a better fit for the Brewers 3rd OF spot than Jim Edmonds.

So why would the Brewers want to trade their star 1B? Well… money. Ryan Howard just signed a 5 year extension with the Phillies yesterday that will pay him $25 million a year. The Brewers don’t have that kind of money. And it’s an easy assumption that Fielder will demand at least $20 million a year. Look at their numbers:

Fielder: 26 years old (next week) Over his first 4 seasons, averaged: .292 BA, 39.5 HR, 110 RBI, 95 R, 3 SB, 130 K's, 86 BB, and averages 159 games a year.

Howard: 30 years old. Over his first 4 full seasons, averaged: .277 BA, 49.5 HR, 143 RBI, 102 R, 2 SB, 191 K's, 92 BB, and averages 156 games a year.

Fielder is going to hit for a higher average and strike out way less. Howard is going to hit more home runs and drive more guys in (though you could argue that in the Cubs lineup, Fielder may drive in more runs). Both guys have about the same number of runs scored, walks, and games played. Fielder is 4 years younger, however. That’s important to a Cubs team that is getting old fast.

The Brewers aren’t going to be able to pay Fielder what he will want, and Fielder will be able to get it from someone. They’re also not going to want him to just walk away without getting something in return. The Cubs could offer a package that might make it worth it for the Brewers. Zambrano’s contract may be too high for the Brewers, so the Cubs might have to eat some of his salary. But as great as Derrek Lee has been, I don’t think the Cubs can afford to sign him for over $10 million a year for another couple of years when their other biggest hitters (Ramirez and Soriano) are getting older as well. Putting Fielder at 1B would give the Cubs the left handed hitter in the middle of the lineup that they have been looking for. It’d also give them a new core of position players to build around: Fielder, Soto, Theriot, Castro.

For the Brewers, this allows them to strengthen their starting pitching and keeps their core of other young positions players together: Braun, Weeks, Escobar, Hart, McGehee. Adding Derrek Lee to that mix for the rest of 2010 and possibly beyond and having Gallardo/Zambrano combination at the top of the rotation now makes you a legitimate player in the NL Central.

Thoughts?

-John Mark

My Zambrano Theory

The Cubs want to trade Carlos Zambarno. I'm convinced of it.

Don't get me wrong, I think the Cubs like Zambrano and think he's a valuable pitcher. But there's a little problem. Actually, 90 million of them.

The Cubs are loaded with big, bad contracts.

Soriano is making $19 million a year with 4 more years left on his contract. He’s not going anywhere.
Fukudome is making $14 million this year. Still has another year left.
Lee comes off the books after this year, but seems like a bargain at $13.25 million.
Ramirez can opt out, but is making $16.75 million this season.
Byrd signed a 3 year, $15 million contract. Not looking so bad right about now.
Grabow is making $2.7 million for the next 3 years. Yikes.
Dempster makes $13.5 million a year.
Lilly makes $13 million a year.
Silva makes $12.75 million a year. (in exchange for Bradley)

Out of all the guys with the big contracts, Zambrano is probably the most tradable. There are always teams looking for starting pitching, especially durable starting pitchers. You know what you're going to get with Carlos. He's going to pitch 200 innings a year and have an ERA in the mid 3's. Even in the years he has gone on the DL, he still reaches 170 innings.

The problem is, he has a no-trade clause. How could the Cubs get him to waive that?

Zambrano was then asked if in his mind he was still a starter.

"Yeah, that's what [Cubs manager] Lou [Piniella] said, that's what we agreed [upon]," Zambrano said. "They are looking for a setup man. That's what they told me. I don't think I'll be here [in the bullpen] too long in this role. But I will be there when they need me."

On Saturday, Zambrano got the final out in the seventh inning before allowing one run on two hits with one strikeout and one walk in the eighth inning of the Cubs' 5-1 win over the Brewers.

"I felt good, that's it," was Zambrano's only comment after the game.

I’ll give Carlos credit, he’s been a team player with this so far. But if the Cubs haven’t made a move and put him back in the rotation by the end of May, Carlos isn’t one to keep quiet. He’s not going to be happy. He’s going to want to start again, and if that means waiving a no-trade clause in order to do so… well, I think he would. Perhaps that’s what management is counting on. All things being equal, I think they would want to keep Carlos. He’s a good player and the fans love him. But the Cubs are spending too much money on a team that is just above average, at best. In today’s free agent market, the Cubs could get a whole lot more bang for their buck than Zambrano for $17.5 million a year or so. Perhaps the front office feels that of all the tradable contracts, the starting pitching position is where they have the most depth.

We know the Yankees inquired about Zambrano this past winter. I bet if they inquired again, the asking price would be a lot lower.

Remember the Seinfeld where George’s boss wanted to fire him when they found out he wasn’t disabled? George realized that as long as he showed up to work, they would have to continue to pay him because he was under contract so they tried turning the heat up on him and boarded his office up one day? Well I think this is the Cubs attempt to board up the starting rotation.

Who is going to balk first?

The Cubs Week in Review (9-10)

After being outscored by the lowly Mets 18-12 and losing 3 of 4 in the series, the Cubs traveled to Milwaukee over the weekend and swept the Brewers, outscoring them 25-4. Back in the beginning of the year I wrote:

“The Brewers problem is they have no pitching. I mean, it's bad. Gallardo should have a good year and Wolf is average, but after that- yikes. Good luck with alllll that.”

The Cubs faced the “Good luck with alllll that” portion of the Brewers rotation this weekend and Cubs hitting was cured, at least for 3 days.

Here is how the Cubs offense has progressed in the past week:

HITTERS: APRIL 19/APRIL 26
Fontenot- .321/ .295
Baker- .313/ .216
Soto- .308/ .366
Fukudome- .306/ .333
Hill- .300/ .353
Lee- .282/ .227
Soriano- .263/ .300
Nady- .250/ .214
Byrd- .244/ .338
Theriot- .235/ .329
Colvin- .235/ .333
Ramirez- .170/ .139

I didn’t add Chad Tracy to the list, because come on. Unless Aramis takes a dive on his shoulder again, he’s not going to be seeing too many at bats. Plus, I’m still not convinced that he isn’t really Morgan Spurlock with cleats on:



We can see that our 2B are starting to come back to reality, but now the two catchers have the highest batting averages on the team. Soto seems to regain form, at least hitting wise. He probably hasn’t been this skinny since grade school. If Soto can stay above .300 this season and knock in some runs… good things are ahead. Marlon Byrd has been the Cubs best hitter over the past week. Fukodome still knows it’s April and unfortunately, so does Lee. Ramirez doesn’t know the season has started yet. Soriano has been a pleasant surprise. Theriot had a great series against Milwaukee and Tyler Colvin is hitting well enough to get traded for some bullpen help.

Let’s check in with our pitching since a week ago as well:

PITCHERS: APRIL 19/ APRIL 26
Dempster- 3.15/ 2.60
Zambrano- 9.45/ 7.40
Lilly- DL/ 0.00
Silva- 0.69/ 0.95
Wells- 2.92/ 2.49
Gorzelanny- 1.93/ 2.40
Marshall- 2.25/ 3.72
Marmol- 1.35/ 0.93
Grabow- 7.71/ 8.10
Berg- 6.23/ 4.50
Russell- 0.00/ 2.84
Samardzija- 16.20/ 18.90 (IOWA)
Gray- 9.00/ 5.40
Caridad- 13.50/ 13.50 (DL)

Overall, the pitching has gotten better. I guess that isn’t necessarily saying too much, but the starters have continued to pitch great. And Lilly’s back and looked great in his first start. Grabow somehow was able to raise his ERA. He was supposed to be one of the guys you could count on. Whoops. Assuming that Grabow gets back to being a serviceable reliever and Zambrano does well in the set-up role, things are looking better.

As for my prediction on Samardzija:
“I would not be surprised if Samardzija doesn’t make it through the day without taking a bus back to Iowa.”

Well, it took four extra days to get that done.

So far, things are shaping up pretty much like we expected. The Cubs record looked worse than how they were really playing a week ago, and hopefully this 3 game win streak is a sign that they are getting back on track. The Cubs open a home stand against the improved Nationals tonight. We’ll see how things carry over but it will be pretty disappointing if they are unable to take 2 of 3.

Disappointing, but not necessarily surprising.

Why Big Z in the Pen is a brilliant move...

The 18 million dollar man, the 10th highest paid player in baseball (contract average) is now the highest paid set-up man in baseball history. Most are seeing this as a move from ace to disgr-ace and that's an easy leap in logic to make when you look at the money behind the move and how managers have begun to utilize their bullpen in the past couple of decades.

Baseball has moved into the realm of the one inning reliever and the 5 inning starter--meaning it should take 4-5 pitchers to make it through a game. That makes for a pretty difficult reality for a bullpen that would have to be "on" every single night to win a game. Back in the day, as far back as the 80's, the bullpen was mastered by a guy who could pitch 2-3 innings extremely effectively. Remember Dennis Eckersley, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, etc? These guys came into the game in the 7th/8th inning and effectively owned the game. They shut down the opposing team for 2 innings plus and earned a save... these are the types of pitchers (save masters!) that the save category was originally created for as a reward. Now, it's one inning and done. Lame.

Carlos Zambrano may be a lunatic on the mound, but he has the same sort of makeup that the original save masters had. I don't have any fancy stats to back up this argument, just a gut feeling. I think Carlos Zambrano could be the guy that restores the old-time saves masters.

Think of Marmol coming in the 7th inning to bail the starting pitcher out of a jam (something he was extremely effective in doing the past couple of years) and then Z coming in the 8th inning to close out the game. This would effectively solve the problem of a perpetually failing bullpen... and negate any needs for bullpen relief via trades. Z is a workhorse would could log 140-160 innings coming out of the bullpen, which is a lower workload than years past as a starter, and he has the mental makeup to close out tight games over a couple of innings!

The bullpen right now has lost most of the games for the Cubs this season, and moving Z to the pen couldn't have come at a better time. Now if they can simply swap him and Marmol the Cubs bullpen issues will be completely fixed.

Go Cubs go!

-Aaron

My Friday Links

I'll be posting links from this past week from the interwebz covering both the Cardinals & the Cubs. Feel free to add your own links or thoughts in the comments section below.

Interesting Mitchell Boggs stats & why "I Heart Chad Qualls"

Carlos Silva has his head shrunk. I still think Carlos Silva is the smoke monster.

Those wacky, silly little Cubs. Got Looper?

The White Rat speaks! Few listen.

Bob Brenly is a big meanie! But speaks the truth on Soriano.

And just for laughs. Baseball's 10 Funniest Fights.

Enjoy!

-Steve

I Heart Chad Qualls (10-5)

Another series won! Led by Colby Rasmus' 2 HRs and the complete meltdown of Chad Qualls & Bob Howry in the 9th inning(1IP, 5H, 5ER, 2HR, 0K). Both starting pitchers had quality starts, with Carpenter striking out 10 & Edwin Jackson scattering 7 hits over 8 innings.

What the box score does not show us, is how Edwin hit Carpenter on the wrist with a high inside pitch. It doesn't look intentional on the replay, meaning Edwin just missed, badly. And thankfully Carpenter wasn't seriously hurt, but Chris and LaRussa took offense to Jackson not having enough control of his pitches.

Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter was furious Wednesday night when he was plunked in the left wrist by Diamondbacks starter Edwin Jackson. He and La Russa knew it wasn’t intentional but said it was uncalled for, blaming catcher Chris Snyder.

"There was no question it wasn’t intentional," La Russa said, "but he got blasted. You’re seeing catchers elevating their gloves inside. So when pitchers miss, someone’s getting hit. They’re not Greg Maddux."

"I watched the replay, and the catcher was setting his glove up high," Carpenter said. "There’s no need for that when you’re throwing 100 [mph]. It’s not like I can hit. And he missed by three feet. It’s not right. He’s a big-league pitcher, he doesn’t need to do that."

"I know he’s didn’t try to hit me, but don’t put your glove up there. Throw the ball down and away. Anytime you throw the ball up there like that it’s unacceptable."
- USA Today

When do batters get to choose how or where the pitcher can throw the ball? It's not like Carpenter is in contention for a batting title or anything.

-Steve

Angel Guzman demotes Zambrano to the bullpen

Current Record (6-9)

I couldn’t believe it when I heard the news, I thought it was a joke. But it isn’t. He admitted it himself. Alfonso Soriano will no longer be doing the hop before he catches (or drops) fly balls. Oh, and Carlos Zambrano is moving to the bullpen.

I’m starting to think that someone needs to have an intervention with the Cubs (well, the logo at least).

“Look Cubs logo, it’s been a fun ride. You gave it a good run. Well, not really. But you did play a lot of games. Some of them competitively, even. Maybe baseball just wasn’t your strong point. Tell me, how do you feel about soap operas?”

The truth is, since yesterday afternoon I have been digesting the decision to move Zambrano to the bullpen. It’s definitely not as cut and dry as some are making it out to be, and part of me really wants to believe that there is something else going on behind closed doors that makes this make sense. But the realistic side of me that has been following the Cubs since birth makes me think that this was not a decision made after thinking about all implications of every alternative.

Logic tells us that there are a finite number of innings you play in a season (technically that’s an impossible number to calculate because of the possibility of extra inning games). Obviously, someone has to be pitching for your team during those innings. Most games you need someone pitching for 9 innings. Sometimes, you need more if the game is tied and goes into extra innings. Sometimes it is less if your team loses on the road- then you are only pitching for 8 innings. Or sometimes the game is shortened by rain and you may only need a pitcher to complete 5 innings. Assuming those situations even themselves out, there are around 1450 innings per season that you need a pitcher. The best strategy would be to make sure that when you are dividing up the innings between your group of pitchers that your best pitchers are pitching as many of those innings as possible while not being overworked.

Over the last 5 years, Zambrano has averaged just over 200 IP a year. So let’s assume if he started all year long, he would pitch 200 innings again this year. If that’s the case, he would account for 13% of your total innings pitched. The most worked relief pitchers in baseball throw about 80 IP a year. That’s 5% of your total needed. Because Zambrano has already started 3 times, let’s assume if he stays in the RP role for the rest of the season, he will finish with about 100 IP. You have just taken your best pitcher and decided to use him half of the time you were going to use him as a starter.

Now you could argue that Zambrano is not really all that superior to Dempster or Lilly. And that’s fine. Even so, of the 1450 innings you need pitching this season, wouldn’t you want Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, and Wells pitching as many of those as possible? I certainly don’t want Zambrano to only pitch 20-30 innings more than someone like Jeff Smardzija. But that’s exactly what will happen with Zambrano in the bullpen.

Obviously with Lilly returning this weekend, someone had to be the odd man out if you’re going to stick with a 5 man rotation. So what you need to do is take a look at Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Wells, Gorzelanny, and Silva and decide out of this group, which of the 6 you would like to take up the least of the 1450 innings. Without a doubt, the choice is between Gorzelanny and Silva. Silva has been pitching out of his mind lately. In his first 3 starts, his ERA is under 1. It’s hard to find the balance between milking something for as long as you can and taking your money and running away as fast as possible. Realistically, we got Silva because it was the only way to get rid of Bradley (as his old landlord wishes he could). So it’s not like the Cubs were counting on Silva to anchor their rotation. But he has. It’d be hard to send him to the bullpen right now. And Gorzelanny has pitched pretty well too. Pinella said he didn’t want to send Gorzelanny to the bullpen because he doesn’t need another lefty. Ok, I understand both of these dilemma’s. But the solution is not to take one of your best 3 pitchers (and probably the best) and give him less innings over the course of the season. Do you really want Carlos Silva pitching more innings than Carlos Zambrano? Maybe. If 2010 was the first season either of them had ever pitched and all you had to go off of was their first 3 starts. Then it’s a no brainer. Send Zambrano to the bullpen!

But then there’s the other side that says, “Yes, but we need someone to pitch in important innings where we need to protect the lead and get some big outs and I’d rather have Zambrano pitch in those innings than Jeff Gray.” Me too. But we have to look at the season as a whole. It’s easy to feel that way after the Cubs got off to the 5-9 start and the bullpen blew most of those 9 losses. It’s easy to decide to do something crazy like move your ace to the bullpen right after one of any of those losses. But in the long run, does it make sense?

There is a statistic that baseball nerds way smarter than me have formulated that measures a players worth probably as good as any other can as far as how they actually influence the number of wins their team accumulates. It’s called their WAR (wins above replacement). Basically it measures how many wins a specific player contributes to the team more than if they were replaced by another player (albeit, a bad one). Over the last 3 years, here are the Cubs current 6 starters average WAR values:

Zambrano: 2.93
Lilly: 3.46
Wells: 3.20 (only 2009 stats)
Dempster: 4.05 (as starter in 2008-09. Had a -.1 WAR as closer in 2007)
Gorzelanny: 0.70 (Though it was 3.6 in 2007 for Pittsburgh)
Silva: -0.05 (2.6 in 2007, but 2008 and 2009 were so bad he actually lost more than a replacement would have)

So obviously, the most valuable pitchers in the rotation are Dempster, Lilly, Wells, and Zambrano. Zambrano has had a couple of seasons where he had a WAR of over 5, but it’s been a few years since then.

So the question now is, how valuable could Zambrano be in the bullpen? Let’s say he moves to the bullpen and becomes the best in the league. What would his WAR be if that was the case? To get an idea, let’s look at some other WAR values of the seasons of relief pitchers over the last few years.

Great closer seasons:

Eric Gagne, 2003: 4.3
Mariano Rivera, 1996: 5.4
Billy Wagner, 1999: 3.9
Brad Lidge, 2004: 4.2

Set-up men seasons:

Matt Thornton, one of the best set-up men in baseball, had a WAR of 2.7 in 2009.
Octavio Dotel had a 3.8 WAR in 2002 setting up Billy Wagner (but he also had 6 saves in 10 chances- Wagner may have been hurt for part of the season?).
Angel Guzman (Zambrano’s true replacement since he’s out for the year and was the set-up guy last season) had a WAR of 1.4 last season.
Carlos Marmol’s WARs as a set-up man in 2007 and 2008 were 2.8 and 2.2, respectively.

So if I’m reading these numbers right, it appears as if it is possible for a closer to have a pretty high WAR value. However, as a non-closing relief pitcher, even the best will end up with a less valuable WAR value than Zambrano’s worst WAR value over his career as a starter.

So if we were talking about moving Zambrano to the closer role, now the move seems less strange (by the numbers, anyway). But you have to realize that this means that both Gorzelanny and Silva would have to have really solid seasons and a WAR of 2.5 or so to make this work. Gorzelanny has the potential to do so and Silva has done back in 2004, but we saw their most recent 3 year averages.

It just seems that for this move to make sense, too many things have to happen. Silva and Gorzelanny both have to get back to pitching the way they did in their best career years. After 3 starts, so far so good. But it’s been 3 starts! I still think there must be something else going on. I read that the Cubs were “scouting” Braden Looper. I don’t know why he needs to be scouted. He started for the Brewers last season. He’s not a great pitcher by any means- he doesn’t even have a job this season. But he’s been a starter, closer, and reliever in his career and I think would be a better option than any of the Cubs current right handed relief pitchers aside from Marmol. Sign him and send one of the rookies back to the minors.

I still think the Cubs have a chance to turn this season around. The offense will hit better. If Soriano and Soto continue their improvement, you have to think Ramirez is going to break out of his slump soon. If Lee and Byrd have average years for them, that’s a decent lineup.

The Cubs starters have a chance to be near the top of the league. If the Cubs could just figure out some relief pitching, I think they’ll start winning some more games. The relief pitching can’t continue to be this bad. Pretty much anything that could have gone wrong for them, has. Caridad should come back and be decent. Grabow and Marshall should be ok from the left side. Really, the key is that right handed set up man. If Zambrano is going to be that guy for awhile, that should be pretty set.

I think things are about to turn around. Call me crazy.

-John Mark

How You Can Tell McGwire is Back in Baseball

Another day, another Cubs loss. The Cubs are now 5-9.

The Cubs were shutout last night by the Cy Young candidate, Mike Pelfrey. His career 4.49 ERA is deceiving, as he is obviously one of the better pitchers to have ever toed the rubber. Just ask the Cubs. Zambrano continued the string of good starts by Cubs starters by giving up 2 runs over 6 innings and striking out 9. Though it took him about 150 pitches to do so. Congratulations are in order for Jeff Gray, who despite giving up a hit and a walk in his one inning of work managed to complete one of the rare scoreless innings by a Cubs bullpen member. He lowered his ERA to 6.75. Nicely done! John Grabow then showed up and puked all over the 8th inning by giving up a pinch hit two run home run to Fernando “I once hit 2 grand slams in one inning” Tatis.

The Cubs stuck to the recipe last night: Quality start from their pitcher, no offense, bad bullpen. I, for one, like to try new recipes.

Soriano, Fontenot, and Hill managed to get the lone 3 hits for the Cubs. Fontenot was able to ruin the only Cubs scoring opportunity by getting picked off at 2B when Zambrano acted like he was trying to bunt and missed.

Not much else to say about that game. 4 losses in a row now. And the Cubs really haven’t played anyone that great. The Braves (ehhh, average), Reds (vomit- lost 2 of 3), Brewers (won 2 of 3), Astros (lost 2 of 3- which happened to double the Astros win total coming into the series), and Mets (lost first 2 of series). This does not bode well for when the minor league schedule comes to an end.

On a side note, have you noticed how many home runs are being hit this year? I’m starting to wonder if there were more pitchers on the juice than we thought. When you think of steroids in baseball, you usually think of the hitters getting bigger and hitting home runs. I bet there were a healthy number of pitchers who were also using.

By the way- Volquez has been suspended for 50 games but is on the 60 day DL, so he can’t pitch anyway. So really, all this suspension is doing is taking his pay away for 50 games. I don’t see how this is fair. The article says it’s fair because the Reds didn’t do anything wrong and don’t deserved to be punished. But when every other player gets suspended, the team is getting punished as well. When a player throws a punch and is suspended 10 games, the team is punished. If that’s the rationale then they shouldn’t suspend players from games, they should just suspend the players pay while playing. I think Volquez should have to wait until he is activated and able to play to start serving his suspension.

What was I saying? Oh, right- home runs. I know some players can be streaky and hit home runs in bunches, but there are a lot of players that have started out with a lot of home runs. If the pace continued for the whole season, here is what the top 10 leader board for Home Runs would look like after 162 games:

Nelson Cruz- 87
Chase Utley- 81
Vernon Wells- 76
Ty Wiggington- 73
Matt Kemp- 68
Dustin Pedroia- 62
Albert Pujols- 62
Jose Guillen- 58
A bunch tied with 54

That's right, Ty Wiggington is on pace to end up on the cover of MLB 2011: The Show. Those are silly numbers. I didn’t bother to go further because there were too many players on pace to hit over 50 Home Runs. Obviously that won’t happen... right?

-John Mark

April 18-19 (9-4)

How could you watch Jerry Manuel bat Frank Catalanotto clean up and determine that he deserves a chance to keep his job? Seriously?!

The Cardinals followed Saturday's 20 inning marathon with a scary start by Wainwright (3 runs in the 1st & a throw out to right field to nobody) that turned into an absolute gem complete game, 9IP, 9K, and taking another series to lead the Central Division. I didn't watch this game because it was on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball & Joe Morgan is a retarded boob. I had to tune to the KTRS broadcast and deal with Mike Shannon, who either drinks before the game or heavily during the game. Pretty productive day by Ludwick, who is batting an even .300, he had a HR, 2B, 2R, 2RBI, & 3 walks.
The Mets continue their series tonight against the scary "new lineup" Cubs.
Viva Los Mets!!!

The Cardinals continue their series tonight versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. In last night's game we saw Brad Penny give up 2 early runs in the 1st inning. We cannot continue to give up 1st inning runs to teams that have a quality bullpen. But luckily Arizona doesn't have a quality bullpen. So after the Cards tied everything up in the 5th, they just waited for the Arizona bullpen to arrive, 2 IP, 4 Hits, 2 R and that made it 4-2 for Ryan Franklin to come in and pitch a perfect 9th inning for his 5 save of the year. I have no doubt that Franklin will have some ups & downs throughout the season but right now we have no one to take over the closer's role until mid-season when we can make a move.

It seems like the Cubs are pretty much beating themselves. So what's new? When will the second coming begin? Starlin Castro might be called up just to sell some more tickets, as if that's ever a problem for the Cubs. While Andrew Cashner withers away in the minors until he is traded away.

Go Cards!

-Steve

The Baseball Gods Hate Randy Wells

Wow, what a frustrating game to watch. Again. It seems like almost every game this year has had the feel like the Cubs were either in control or were in a good position to win the game. And then they have lost.

Another great effort by a starter was wasted. Randy Wells went 6 innings and only gave up 1 earned run. He lowered his ERA to 2.45. He’s given up 5 ER over 3 starts and has one win to show for it. Last year, he started the season by going 0-3 over his first 7 starts. Started slow last year, right? Nope. Wells gave up 12 runs in 43 innings over those first 7 starts in 2009. That’s a 2.51 ERA. I think I would have packed by glove away and said “Screw it, this is a silly game” and went home. Well Randy, welcome to 2010 where things don’t change.

The Cub offense only managed to put up 1 run against the rookie Mets pitcher, Jon Niese. But it wasn’t like Niese dominated. The Cubs threatened to score pretty much every inning. Here are your Cub base runners per inning:

1st: 1
2nd: 2
3rd: 1
4th: 2 (1st and 3rd, 1 Out. Soto and Theriot both strike out.)
5th: 3 (Bases loaded, 1 Out. Nady strikes out. Ramirez grounds out.)
6th: 2 (Soto scores on a Byrd infield single)
7th: 0
8th: 1
9th: 2

You should not lose a game with those opportunities. Especially when your starter gives up one run over six innings! If baseball ever decides to shorten games to 6 innings, the Cubs will probably be the best team in baseball. Their starters will all pitch complete games and give up about 2 runs. Unfortunately, they play 9 and the Cubs have a bullpen. After six solid innings by Wells, they wasted no time in coming in and sucking. Here’s the Mets’ 7th:

James Russell pitching.
Jose Reyes: hit by pitch (on an 0-2 count)
Gary Matthews Jr: strikes out. 1 Out.
Angel Pagan: Home Run. 3-1 Mets.
Luis Castillo: Lines out. 2 Outs.

*At this point, Pinella decides to bring in Samardzija to face the upcoming right handed hitters. I think we know what’s coming.

Jeff Samardzija pitching.
David Wright: Walks, steals 2nd.
Jason Bay: Doubles, Wright scores. 4-1 Mets.
Jeff Francoeur: Reaches on error by Ramirez.

Sean Marshall pitching.
Ian Davis: Singles, Bay scores. 5-1 Mets.
Wild pitch by Marshall, Francoeur scores. 6-1 Mets.
Rod Barajas: Grounds out.

Game over.

Through 7 Innings:
Randy Wells: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB
Bullpen: 1 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 1 BB

Holy crap. Something has to be done. We knew the bullpen was going to be shaky. Now I’m hoping the bullpen can just get to shaky. They can’t get anyone out. I would not be surprised if Samardzija doesn’t make it through the day without taking a bus back to Iowa. Perhaps they can take a detour and drop him back at Notre Dame. That was a waste of 11 million dollars.

But let’s be honest- the offense was just as bad. Kind of. I mean, they were getting on base. They were getting hits. It’s not like the offense wasn’t working. But it’s like some mental block. Guys get on base and then we can’t even hit a sac fly? 26 men left on base. 26! I watched some of the Cardinal game last night too. You know what the difference is? The Cardinals capitalize. I guarantee the Cardinals do not have more scoring chances than the Cubs do. But when they get them, they take advantage of them and score.

And what the heck is going on with Aramis Ramirez? I’ve never seen him this bad. Another 0 for 4 night and now his average is down to .157. Even Randy Wells had two hits last night!

This is depressing.
-John Mark

Fun with Numbers

Today we are playing with numbers to figure out what’s going on with the Cubs. I’ll admit that I was wrong about the Astros/Cubs series this weekend. I had predicted that the Astros would get their first win of the season against the Cubs in Wrigley. However, the now red hot Astros (that sounds hilarious) managed to beat St. Louis in the final game of their series before coming in and tricking the Cubs into losing 2 one run games to them this weekend. What we learned this weekend is that the Astros are really, really bad. And what was confirmed yet again was that the Cubs can and will lose to anyone.

My initial feeling after watching the Cubs this year is that it seems like the offense has been struggling. I remember thinking that after last year with so many of the Cubs good hitters having crappy seasons (minus Derrek Lee), there was no way that they could all be so bad again this year. Early indications are I was wrong. Here’s what I found looking at the stats:

Runs per game NL Central:
Milwaukee- 5.08 RPG (thankfully, they’re going to need about 10 a game to overcome their pitching staff. Doug Davis was spotted a 10-0 lead in the first inning yesterday and didn’t get the win.)
St Louis- 4.58 RPG
Pittsburgh- 4.41 RPG (why are the Pirates scoring more runs per game than the Cubs?)
Cubs- 4.333 RPG
Cincinnati- 4.07 RPG
Houston- 2.33 RPG (Dear Lord)

Hitting:
Fontenot- .321
Baker- .313
Soto- .308
Fukudome- .306
Hill- .300
Lee- .282
Soriano- .263
Nady- .250
Byrd- .244
Theriot- .235
Ramirez- .170

Well crap. Your two part time 2B are the team’s leading hitters and the team’s best hitter has the worst batting average. Soto has been coming along, though you can count on a drop in average for the top 5 players on that list. But the bottom 6 should all hit better, too. So... back to square one.

Pitching:

Starters:
Dempster- 3.15, 22 K’s in 20 IP
Zambrano- 9.45, 17 K’s, 20 Hits in 13.1 IP
Silva- 0.69, 0 BB in 13 IP
Wells- 2.92 ERA
Gorzelanny- 1.93 ERA

Total Starters ERA:
68 IP, 28 ER—3.70
Take out Zambrano’s first start, 2.69.

The starters have been great, and this is without Theodore Roosevelt Lilly. Dempster is probably pitching about how he will. Zambrano had the abomination that was his first start, then pitched pretty well in Cincinnati, and then struggled against Milwaukee but pitched well enough on a day when the wind was blowing out so hard that Wrigley played like a Little League field. Silva—this can’t last. I don’t think Wells is going to have a sub 3 ERA all season, and Gorzelanny certainly isn’t going to have a sub 2 ERA. In other words, we just wasted 2 weeks of great starting pitching. Here’s how:

Relievers:
Marshall- 2.25
Marmol- 1.35
Grabow- 7.71
Berg- 6.23
Russell- 0.00
Samardzija- 16.20
Gray- 9.00
Caridad- 13.50

Total Relievers ERA:
37 IP, 23 ER—5.59


Overall, the Cubs are giving up 4.37 runs a game and scoring 4.33 runs a game.

Conclusion: With these numbers, it is no surprise that the Cubs have a 5-7 record. But really, if you take out the first game of the season where they were beat 16-5 and the pitching staff gave up 14 earned runs over 8 IP, now the numbers look like this: Cubs are giving up 3.43 Runs per game since Game 2 of the season while scoring 4.27 Runs per game. Outscoring your opponents 4.27-3.43 over the last 11 games should not yield a 5-6 record. But isn’t this always the Cubs story? They lose the games they should win. Even the numbers can’t help the Cubs.

The Detroit Tigers have been outscored 61-58 this year and have a 7-5 record.
The Washington Nationals have been outscored 77-60 and have a 6-6 record. Huh?
The New York Mets have been outscored by one run this season, but are 4-8.
And with the most confusing stat, the Pittsburgh Pirates have been outscored 75-53 and are 7-5.

The numbers will all average themselves out for the most part. Soon the Pirates will start losing a lot of games. So will the Nationals. And I believe the Cubs best hitters will start hitting better while the Cubs worst hitters will start hitting worse. The starters will not be this good all year but Zambrano will pitch better, Dempster will continue to pitch about like this (though his K rate is probably a little inflated right now), Wells will be solid, and Silva/Gorzelanny will start a “who can suck less” contest to stay in the rotation when Lilly comes back, hopefully this weekend. The bullpen- bad, bad, bad. And really, I don’t see any good solutions except to hope that the starters can go 6-7 innings every time out and then hope Grabow pitches better and whoever gets sent to the bullpen between Silva/Gorzelanny can get the ball to Marmol. Bringing in anyone else is going to be big trouble.

No need to panic yet, but the early indicators are what we suspected: The Cardinals are the best team in the NL Central, and the Cubs should be able to beat out the rest of the division for 2nd place. The Cubs only chance is to stay as close as possible to the Cardinals and either hope they can pick someone up by the trade deadline or hope the Cardinals have some injuries to deal with. That’s right, we are only 12 games in and I already am putting my hopes in injuries to Cardinals players.

Crap.

John Mark

20 Innings

Last night I had the pleasure of listening to my St. Louis Cardinals via the MLB 2010 Iphone application. What a stupid idea that was! It turned into a 7 hour journey of ups & downs, twists & turns, pitchers playing the outfield and infielders taking the mound. And it all ended with the Mets winning 2-1. I haven’t wasted that much time since the first “Call Of Duty” came out, plus that was even before I got married. I have no idea about some of the managerial decisions coming from either of the dugouts. It was a game of “let’s not get anybody injured, but let’s look good doing it.” LaRussa didn’t want to injure or use anymore starting pitchers, because he knows that beyond Carpenter & Wainwright, the rest of the rotation is a flimsy house of cards. Jerry Manuel, well he could be fired any day now, but with the emotional 2-1 win he has escaped the impending axe for just a few more days.

Of course while this tragic marathon game was going on, Ubaldo Jimenez was pitching the first no-hitter for the Colorado Rockies against the Atlanta Braves. He is also the first pitcher with a first name that begins with the letter “U” to pitch a no-no. Well-done sir! There were some rumblings within the baseball world that the Atlanta fans were booing Ubaldo during the 9th inning, same classy fans that cheered on John Rocker?

In baseball today, I am waiting for my Cardinals to take the field versus a tired and pitiful Mets team. I see no reason why Wainwright can’t strike out 30-35 guys in tonight’s game, I mean it’s a given? Right? My other counterpart on this blog thing will cover the triumphant win by the red hot & streaking Houston Astros, who beat some team on the north side of Chicago today.

I will be the voice of dissent on this blog. As I am a born & raised St. Louis Cardinals fan, who hates all things Cubbie. The Cubs are like Obama and I am like the Tea party, whatever the Cubs do, right or wrong, I will criticize it, but I don’t own a musket & I actually have a college degree.

I’ll be here this evening if anybody has any questions or comments, or would like to chat about tonight’s game as it is going on. Go Cards!

-Steve

Exciting News!

The Cubs were unable to complete the sweep of the Brewers yesterday. Before I get to some exciting news, I want to check up on my predictions that I made before the game yesterday.

Zambrano:
Predicted-8 IP, 3 ER, 6 hits, 3 BB, 7 K's
Actual- 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 hits, 3 BB, 7'K's
Ramirez:
Predicted- 3 for 4, HR, 2B, 3 RBI’s
Actual- 1 for 4, HR, 1 BB, 1 RBI

Not too bad, right?

Anyway, the exciting news is that this blog is adding two more contributors!
My former best man/college roommate and current church planter Aaron Monts is going to help me cover the Cubs from his location in San Francisco. I'm very excited about this!

And so we have a more well rounded site, I thought it'd be great if we added a Cardinals fan to the mix to follow the Cardinals all year. Steve Judd is a Cardinals fan who lives in Chicago and will be covering the Cardinals all year as well.

I'm very excited about having 2 Cubs fans and a Cardinals fan follwing the teams on a consistent basis during the season!

-John Mark

April 15th, 2010 Cubs vs. Brewers!

Today the Cubs are going for the series sweep of the Brewers. Zambrano and his 11.88 ERA are starting. He should be able to lower that today. Of course, he could give up a run an inning and still lower his ERA, so let’s not get too excited.

The game gets underway in about 25 minutes. In the meantime, I am listening to the Cardinal/Astros game. The MLB radio IPhone App is a godsend for working in a cubicle. Can someone explain to me why Ryan Ludwick is the Cardinals #2 hitter? It seems to me that Rasmus would be a much more suitable #2 hitter than Ludwick, but he’s hitting 5th. I’m trying to use Tony LaRussa’s logic (while trying to not end up at a stop light passed out with my foot on the brake) and can only assume he doesn’t want to put too much pressure on Rasmus right away by putting him in the 2 hole. I guess? Ever since Rick Ankiel had an emotional breakdown from starting Game 1 of the playoffs years ago, he has kind of handled young players with kid gloves. He started Garcia last Saturday instead of the original plan of starting him on Sunday when it was announced that Sunday’s game would be the game of the week on ESPN. I don’t know if the players are that fragile, but it worked. Anyway- Rasmus should be hitting 2nd and Ludwick hitting 5th. Or Felipe Lopez could hit 2nd. Anyone but Ludwick! I see that he is no longer hitting the pitcher 8th. Apparently that strategy only makes sense some years. Man I hate the Cardinals.

Also- it is quite a task to listen to Cardinals’ radio. I don’t know how you Cardinal fans do it (as if there are Cardinal fans reading this). Mike Shannon sounds like an uninterested grandfather with a raspy voice. I picture him sitting in a smoke filled lounge sipping scotch and annoyed that he has to explain to us what his happening on the field. I’m probably very biased, but how can you beat Pat Hughes? I could see where Ron Santo would annoy the crap out of you if you weren’t a Cubs fan. But the chemistry between Pat and Ron is so good. The image I have of Ron is one where he is sitting in a high chair in the booth eating blue jello out of a little container, wearing a Cubs bib, holding his spoon in one hand and his Cubs rattle in the other. Pat is there to interpret Ron’s outbursts.

Ok, the game is about to start. My prediction:

Zambrano- 8 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BB, 7 K’s

I think Aramis is going to have a good day today: 3 for 4, HR, 2B, 3 RBI’s

Cubs win, 6-3

-John Mark

April 14th. (4-4)

I thought it would be fun to try and keep a running blog throughout the baseball season that follows the Cubs. I do it through my Facebook and Twitter status updates anyway. This is probably a better home for it.

Eight games in and the Cubs are at .500. Probably will be where they hover most of the year. So far, the bullpen has been as bad as I suspected, the starting pitching has been very solid (except for Opening Day when Zambrano threw batting practice to the Braves for an inning and third), and the hitting has been very 2009ish (see: awful).

Here's a quick catch up of the first 8 games of the season:
-The Cubs have had a lead in every game.
-Derrek Lee is already out with a bad thumb (no more squashing fontenot between innings!)
-Aramis is hitting under .150
-Caridad has been placed on the DL with a strained forearm, which in this case probably means he was so awful in his first two appearances that the Cubs would rather give him 2 weeks off than send him down and use up one of his options (if that's how options even work)
-Marmol has been throwing like a real closer. I'll admit I was scared to death in the 9th today when the Cubs were up one and Marmol had to face Hart, Braun, and Fielder. He proceeded to strike out the side.
-It is clear that Soriano is a lost cause. He seems to be healthy, but he has lost any capability to play the field. He'd be a great DH if he could still hit. If the rest of the team wasn't hitting under .200, his hitting woes would be more of an issue as well. Only 4 more years of this. Guh.
-Sean Marshall has been great out of the bullpen. And he's still very, very tall.
-Randy Wells has pitched very well. I was (and continue to be) a little hesitant in trusting his success so far in the majors. But he seems to be for real. Could be a very consistent and valuable #3-4 starter for years to come.
-Oh, and Milton Bradley has already flipped off some fans. That's always good news.
-What happened to Soto? He Jerome Waltoned us.
-As usual, Kosuke is our best hitter in April. Unfortunately May follows. And then all the other months.

The good news is the Cubs will probably really only have to compete with the Cardinals in the division. Despite spending about $50 million more on players (if that's what you want to call Alfonso), the Cardinals are clearly the better team. A lineup with Pujols, Holliday, and Ludwick is prettty good. And Wainwright and Carpenter is arguably the best 1-2 combination in the National League. But the race could be a lot closer as the year goes along if Carpenter cannot stay healthy, as he has rarely been able to do in recent years. If he goes down for a lengthy amount of time, or if any of their key players go down- I don't think the Cardinals are deep enough to get by. Ryan Franklin is destined to lose his job as closer. He's just not good. The Cubs also will have the ability to add some help if needed when the trade deadline comes, so that will be an advantage that most of the NL Central probably won't have this year.

The Brewers should finish 3rd. They have a pretty strong lineup led by Braun and Fielder. Being surrounded by Hart, Weeks, and McGehee is not too bad. Of course, they're still trotting out Jim Edmonds everyday too. The Brewers problem is they have no pitching. I mean, it's bad. Gallardo should have a good year and Wolf is average, but after that- yikes. Good luck with alllll that.

The Reds could be a very average team this year. And compared to recent years, that's an improvement. They also could use some pitching. I don't think you're a real contender when Aaron Harang is your ace. Bringing up Aroldis Chapman could help. But not enough.

The Pirates... well, they're the Pirates. I can't even name any of their starting pitchers. They have some good young hitters- McCutchen will probably be an all-star someday, Milledge is showing signs that he could finally live up to the hype and have a strong year, Garrett Jones is producing. They could be a pretty good 5th place team.

And there's the Astros. Bad. They haven't won yet. They're losing to St. Louis right now and if it holds up, they will be 0-8. But let's face it. They will get their first win of the year against the Cubs this weekend. But they are going to lose a lot of games this year and will probably have traded Carlos Lee and Roy Oswalt by the deadline. Berkman is in the final year of his contract, so we could see a completely different Astros team in 2011.

So, that's where we're at. I love baseball season.

-John Mark