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My Friday Links

A changing of the guard for Cubs fans used to owners who only see dollar signs? George Will thinks so, but really only time will tell.

Has Lou gone soft? Or is the guy just tired?

The Cubs might win a trophy this year, no not this one, but the one they are talking about here. They couldn't even get a picture or rendering of the thing?! And is it the same BP sponsoring this that also gave us this recently? I thought it was a joke when I first heard about it, like those useless trophies they give to the winner of a 2nd rate college football game.

I mean do they really need the "camouflaged jersey-vest"?! Do you need to hide from the skeet?

As long as we win, I could care less where the pitcher hits.

-Steve

Best Caption Contest!

Add your caption to this instant classic:

-John Mark

Even Montreal Couldn't Contain These Nationals

Record (10-12)

Remember when I said the Cubs should take 2 of 3 from the Nationals and if they didn’t it’d be disappointing, but not surprising? Well… they didn’t. And it was very, very disappointing.

The Cubs took care of Game 1, but Livan Hernandez confused Cubs hitters for most of Game 2 and the Nationals evened the series. Yesterday’s game was the worst.

Dempster ended up pitching a pretty great game, going 8 innings and only giving up 4 hits. However, the two home runs he gave up ended up hurting him. Here’s the two stats that tell you pretty much all you need to know about the game:

Nationals:

Team Runners in Scoring Position: 1 for 1

Team Left on Base: 2

Cubs:

Team Runners in Scoring Position: 1 for 12

Team Left on Base: 11

Wow. The Nationals had one at bat with a man in scoring position, and they capitalized. The Cubs had 12 (!) at bats and had one hit. The Cubs scored 2 runs while getting 9 hits and 4 walks. The Nationals scored 3 runs while getting 4 hits and 1 walk. Not good. It was a very hard game to listen to.

Derrek Lee is continuing his slide and is now hitting .203. Ramirez is sitting at .155.

The Cubs start a four game series at home against Arizona today. I’ll be attending the final game on Sunday, so I’m looking forward to that despite the forecast of rain. Let’s do some predictions for today:

Lilly:

6 IP, 6 Hits, 3 ER, 5 K’s, 1 BB

Derrek Lee: 2 for 4, HR, 2 RBI’s

Cubs are going to win this one, 6-4.

-John Mark

**UPDATE: The wind is howling out today... could turn into a home run derby. Probably doesn't bode well for the Cubs. (1:04 PM)

-Welp, I was right about the Home Run Derby. 3 Diamondback home runs already. 6-1 Arizona in the 5th. (2:48 PM)

Trade Idea

One of the fun things to do as a baseball fan is to pretend you’re the General Manager of a team and think of trades that you would make.

“I think I got it. How 'bout this? How 'bout this? We trade Jim Leyritz and Bernie Williams, for Barry Bonds, huh? Whadda ya think? That way you have Griffey and Bonds, in the same outfield! Now you got a team!” -George Costanza (1996)

That trade didn’t make much sense for the Pirates, but I think I’ve come up with a trade idea that makes some sense for the Cubs and the Brewers.

Carlos Zambrano, Derrek Lee, and Tyler Colvin for Prince Fielder (and possibly a RP not named Latroy).

Here’s why I think it might work:

Zambrano: It appears they have made it clear (that doesn’t sound right) that of all their contracts that are tradable, Zambrano’s is the one they think they would miss the least. They could get by with Dempster, Lilly, and Wells anchoring the rotation. If… no, when Silva falters, the Cubs still have other options like Sean Marshall to plug into the rotation. Zambrano would have to waive his no-trade clause, but at a chance to start again on a decent young team located close enough to Chicago that he wouldn’t have to pick up and move everything, he might bite. Oh, and he could stick it to the Cubs for not wanting him in their rotation anymore. My bets are he’d have a heck of a 2010 season for the Brewers if this happened. He would also fit well in a rotation that is pretty awful once you get past Gallardo. With a 1-2 punch of Gallardo and Zambrano, now you’ve got something.

Lee: Cub fans love Derrek Lee. He’s a really good guy and a fan favorite. He’s also getting old and it won’t be long before his numbers start showing it. But he’s still a terrific defensive first baseman and an above average hitter. He’d fit the hole left by Fielder in the Brewers lineup very well and would thrive hitting in front of Braun. Lee is in the final year of his contract, so this would give the Brewers a great 1B for the rest of the season and then some freedom on what to do at that position next year. With the emergence of Casey McGehee, the Brewers could always move him to 1B next year and give their prospect Matt Gamel a full-time shot at 3B.

Colvin: He’s a great young hitter, but unfortunately, the Cubs OF is jammed up with contracts beyond this year. Soriano will be clogging up LF for a long time, Byrd signed a 3 year deal this offseason, and Fukudome is signed through 2011. None of those guys are going anywhere. The four man rotation has been working for the Cubs so far, but they’re going to need to move forward with a set lineup at some point. And let’s be honest, Colvin will be a better fit for the Brewers 3rd OF spot than Jim Edmonds.

So why would the Brewers want to trade their star 1B? Well… money. Ryan Howard just signed a 5 year extension with the Phillies yesterday that will pay him $25 million a year. The Brewers don’t have that kind of money. And it’s an easy assumption that Fielder will demand at least $20 million a year. Look at their numbers:

Fielder: 26 years old (next week) Over his first 4 seasons, averaged: .292 BA, 39.5 HR, 110 RBI, 95 R, 3 SB, 130 K's, 86 BB, and averages 159 games a year.

Howard: 30 years old. Over his first 4 full seasons, averaged: .277 BA, 49.5 HR, 143 RBI, 102 R, 2 SB, 191 K's, 92 BB, and averages 156 games a year.

Fielder is going to hit for a higher average and strike out way less. Howard is going to hit more home runs and drive more guys in (though you could argue that in the Cubs lineup, Fielder may drive in more runs). Both guys have about the same number of runs scored, walks, and games played. Fielder is 4 years younger, however. That’s important to a Cubs team that is getting old fast.

The Brewers aren’t going to be able to pay Fielder what he will want, and Fielder will be able to get it from someone. They’re also not going to want him to just walk away without getting something in return. The Cubs could offer a package that might make it worth it for the Brewers. Zambrano’s contract may be too high for the Brewers, so the Cubs might have to eat some of his salary. But as great as Derrek Lee has been, I don’t think the Cubs can afford to sign him for over $10 million a year for another couple of years when their other biggest hitters (Ramirez and Soriano) are getting older as well. Putting Fielder at 1B would give the Cubs the left handed hitter in the middle of the lineup that they have been looking for. It’d also give them a new core of position players to build around: Fielder, Soto, Theriot, Castro.

For the Brewers, this allows them to strengthen their starting pitching and keeps their core of other young positions players together: Braun, Weeks, Escobar, Hart, McGehee. Adding Derrek Lee to that mix for the rest of 2010 and possibly beyond and having Gallardo/Zambrano combination at the top of the rotation now makes you a legitimate player in the NL Central.

Thoughts?

-John Mark

My Zambrano Theory

The Cubs want to trade Carlos Zambarno. I'm convinced of it.

Don't get me wrong, I think the Cubs like Zambrano and think he's a valuable pitcher. But there's a little problem. Actually, 90 million of them.

The Cubs are loaded with big, bad contracts.

Soriano is making $19 million a year with 4 more years left on his contract. He’s not going anywhere.
Fukudome is making $14 million this year. Still has another year left.
Lee comes off the books after this year, but seems like a bargain at $13.25 million.
Ramirez can opt out, but is making $16.75 million this season.
Byrd signed a 3 year, $15 million contract. Not looking so bad right about now.
Grabow is making $2.7 million for the next 3 years. Yikes.
Dempster makes $13.5 million a year.
Lilly makes $13 million a year.
Silva makes $12.75 million a year. (in exchange for Bradley)

Out of all the guys with the big contracts, Zambrano is probably the most tradable. There are always teams looking for starting pitching, especially durable starting pitchers. You know what you're going to get with Carlos. He's going to pitch 200 innings a year and have an ERA in the mid 3's. Even in the years he has gone on the DL, he still reaches 170 innings.

The problem is, he has a no-trade clause. How could the Cubs get him to waive that?

Zambrano was then asked if in his mind he was still a starter.

"Yeah, that's what [Cubs manager] Lou [Piniella] said, that's what we agreed [upon]," Zambrano said. "They are looking for a setup man. That's what they told me. I don't think I'll be here [in the bullpen] too long in this role. But I will be there when they need me."

On Saturday, Zambrano got the final out in the seventh inning before allowing one run on two hits with one strikeout and one walk in the eighth inning of the Cubs' 5-1 win over the Brewers.

"I felt good, that's it," was Zambrano's only comment after the game.

I’ll give Carlos credit, he’s been a team player with this so far. But if the Cubs haven’t made a move and put him back in the rotation by the end of May, Carlos isn’t one to keep quiet. He’s not going to be happy. He’s going to want to start again, and if that means waiving a no-trade clause in order to do so… well, I think he would. Perhaps that’s what management is counting on. All things being equal, I think they would want to keep Carlos. He’s a good player and the fans love him. But the Cubs are spending too much money on a team that is just above average, at best. In today’s free agent market, the Cubs could get a whole lot more bang for their buck than Zambrano for $17.5 million a year or so. Perhaps the front office feels that of all the tradable contracts, the starting pitching position is where they have the most depth.

We know the Yankees inquired about Zambrano this past winter. I bet if they inquired again, the asking price would be a lot lower.

Remember the Seinfeld where George’s boss wanted to fire him when they found out he wasn’t disabled? George realized that as long as he showed up to work, they would have to continue to pay him because he was under contract so they tried turning the heat up on him and boarded his office up one day? Well I think this is the Cubs attempt to board up the starting rotation.

Who is going to balk first?

The Cubs Week in Review (9-10)

After being outscored by the lowly Mets 18-12 and losing 3 of 4 in the series, the Cubs traveled to Milwaukee over the weekend and swept the Brewers, outscoring them 25-4. Back in the beginning of the year I wrote:

“The Brewers problem is they have no pitching. I mean, it's bad. Gallardo should have a good year and Wolf is average, but after that- yikes. Good luck with alllll that.”

The Cubs faced the “Good luck with alllll that” portion of the Brewers rotation this weekend and Cubs hitting was cured, at least for 3 days.

Here is how the Cubs offense has progressed in the past week:

HITTERS: APRIL 19/APRIL 26
Fontenot- .321/ .295
Baker- .313/ .216
Soto- .308/ .366
Fukudome- .306/ .333
Hill- .300/ .353
Lee- .282/ .227
Soriano- .263/ .300
Nady- .250/ .214
Byrd- .244/ .338
Theriot- .235/ .329
Colvin- .235/ .333
Ramirez- .170/ .139

I didn’t add Chad Tracy to the list, because come on. Unless Aramis takes a dive on his shoulder again, he’s not going to be seeing too many at bats. Plus, I’m still not convinced that he isn’t really Morgan Spurlock with cleats on:



We can see that our 2B are starting to come back to reality, but now the two catchers have the highest batting averages on the team. Soto seems to regain form, at least hitting wise. He probably hasn’t been this skinny since grade school. If Soto can stay above .300 this season and knock in some runs… good things are ahead. Marlon Byrd has been the Cubs best hitter over the past week. Fukodome still knows it’s April and unfortunately, so does Lee. Ramirez doesn’t know the season has started yet. Soriano has been a pleasant surprise. Theriot had a great series against Milwaukee and Tyler Colvin is hitting well enough to get traded for some bullpen help.

Let’s check in with our pitching since a week ago as well:

PITCHERS: APRIL 19/ APRIL 26
Dempster- 3.15/ 2.60
Zambrano- 9.45/ 7.40
Lilly- DL/ 0.00
Silva- 0.69/ 0.95
Wells- 2.92/ 2.49
Gorzelanny- 1.93/ 2.40
Marshall- 2.25/ 3.72
Marmol- 1.35/ 0.93
Grabow- 7.71/ 8.10
Berg- 6.23/ 4.50
Russell- 0.00/ 2.84
Samardzija- 16.20/ 18.90 (IOWA)
Gray- 9.00/ 5.40
Caridad- 13.50/ 13.50 (DL)

Overall, the pitching has gotten better. I guess that isn’t necessarily saying too much, but the starters have continued to pitch great. And Lilly’s back and looked great in his first start. Grabow somehow was able to raise his ERA. He was supposed to be one of the guys you could count on. Whoops. Assuming that Grabow gets back to being a serviceable reliever and Zambrano does well in the set-up role, things are looking better.

As for my prediction on Samardzija:
“I would not be surprised if Samardzija doesn’t make it through the day without taking a bus back to Iowa.”

Well, it took four extra days to get that done.

So far, things are shaping up pretty much like we expected. The Cubs record looked worse than how they were really playing a week ago, and hopefully this 3 game win streak is a sign that they are getting back on track. The Cubs open a home stand against the improved Nationals tonight. We’ll see how things carry over but it will be pretty disappointing if they are unable to take 2 of 3.

Disappointing, but not necessarily surprising.