Why Big Z in the Pen is a brilliant move...

The 18 million dollar man, the 10th highest paid player in baseball (contract average) is now the highest paid set-up man in baseball history. Most are seeing this as a move from ace to disgr-ace and that's an easy leap in logic to make when you look at the money behind the move and how managers have begun to utilize their bullpen in the past couple of decades.

Baseball has moved into the realm of the one inning reliever and the 5 inning starter--meaning it should take 4-5 pitchers to make it through a game. That makes for a pretty difficult reality for a bullpen that would have to be "on" every single night to win a game. Back in the day, as far back as the 80's, the bullpen was mastered by a guy who could pitch 2-3 innings extremely effectively. Remember Dennis Eckersley, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, etc? These guys came into the game in the 7th/8th inning and effectively owned the game. They shut down the opposing team for 2 innings plus and earned a save... these are the types of pitchers (save masters!) that the save category was originally created for as a reward. Now, it's one inning and done. Lame.

Carlos Zambrano may be a lunatic on the mound, but he has the same sort of makeup that the original save masters had. I don't have any fancy stats to back up this argument, just a gut feeling. I think Carlos Zambrano could be the guy that restores the old-time saves masters.

Think of Marmol coming in the 7th inning to bail the starting pitcher out of a jam (something he was extremely effective in doing the past couple of years) and then Z coming in the 8th inning to close out the game. This would effectively solve the problem of a perpetually failing bullpen... and negate any needs for bullpen relief via trades. Z is a workhorse would could log 140-160 innings coming out of the bullpen, which is a lower workload than years past as a starter, and he has the mental makeup to close out tight games over a couple of innings!

The bullpen right now has lost most of the games for the Cubs this season, and moving Z to the pen couldn't have come at a better time. Now if they can simply swap him and Marmol the Cubs bullpen issues will be completely fixed.

Go Cubs go!

-Aaron

My Friday Links

I'll be posting links from this past week from the interwebz covering both the Cardinals & the Cubs. Feel free to add your own links or thoughts in the comments section below.

Interesting Mitchell Boggs stats & why "I Heart Chad Qualls"

Carlos Silva has his head shrunk. I still think Carlos Silva is the smoke monster.

Those wacky, silly little Cubs. Got Looper?

The White Rat speaks! Few listen.

Bob Brenly is a big meanie! But speaks the truth on Soriano.

And just for laughs. Baseball's 10 Funniest Fights.

Enjoy!

-Steve

I Heart Chad Qualls (10-5)

Another series won! Led by Colby Rasmus' 2 HRs and the complete meltdown of Chad Qualls & Bob Howry in the 9th inning(1IP, 5H, 5ER, 2HR, 0K). Both starting pitchers had quality starts, with Carpenter striking out 10 & Edwin Jackson scattering 7 hits over 8 innings.

What the box score does not show us, is how Edwin hit Carpenter on the wrist with a high inside pitch. It doesn't look intentional on the replay, meaning Edwin just missed, badly. And thankfully Carpenter wasn't seriously hurt, but Chris and LaRussa took offense to Jackson not having enough control of his pitches.

Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter was furious Wednesday night when he was plunked in the left wrist by Diamondbacks starter Edwin Jackson. He and La Russa knew it wasn’t intentional but said it was uncalled for, blaming catcher Chris Snyder.

"There was no question it wasn’t intentional," La Russa said, "but he got blasted. You’re seeing catchers elevating their gloves inside. So when pitchers miss, someone’s getting hit. They’re not Greg Maddux."

"I watched the replay, and the catcher was setting his glove up high," Carpenter said. "There’s no need for that when you’re throwing 100 [mph]. It’s not like I can hit. And he missed by three feet. It’s not right. He’s a big-league pitcher, he doesn’t need to do that."

"I know he’s didn’t try to hit me, but don’t put your glove up there. Throw the ball down and away. Anytime you throw the ball up there like that it’s unacceptable."
- USA Today

When do batters get to choose how or where the pitcher can throw the ball? It's not like Carpenter is in contention for a batting title or anything.

-Steve

Angel Guzman demotes Zambrano to the bullpen

Current Record (6-9)

I couldn’t believe it when I heard the news, I thought it was a joke. But it isn’t. He admitted it himself. Alfonso Soriano will no longer be doing the hop before he catches (or drops) fly balls. Oh, and Carlos Zambrano is moving to the bullpen.

I’m starting to think that someone needs to have an intervention with the Cubs (well, the logo at least).

“Look Cubs logo, it’s been a fun ride. You gave it a good run. Well, not really. But you did play a lot of games. Some of them competitively, even. Maybe baseball just wasn’t your strong point. Tell me, how do you feel about soap operas?”

The truth is, since yesterday afternoon I have been digesting the decision to move Zambrano to the bullpen. It’s definitely not as cut and dry as some are making it out to be, and part of me really wants to believe that there is something else going on behind closed doors that makes this make sense. But the realistic side of me that has been following the Cubs since birth makes me think that this was not a decision made after thinking about all implications of every alternative.

Logic tells us that there are a finite number of innings you play in a season (technically that’s an impossible number to calculate because of the possibility of extra inning games). Obviously, someone has to be pitching for your team during those innings. Most games you need someone pitching for 9 innings. Sometimes, you need more if the game is tied and goes into extra innings. Sometimes it is less if your team loses on the road- then you are only pitching for 8 innings. Or sometimes the game is shortened by rain and you may only need a pitcher to complete 5 innings. Assuming those situations even themselves out, there are around 1450 innings per season that you need a pitcher. The best strategy would be to make sure that when you are dividing up the innings between your group of pitchers that your best pitchers are pitching as many of those innings as possible while not being overworked.

Over the last 5 years, Zambrano has averaged just over 200 IP a year. So let’s assume if he started all year long, he would pitch 200 innings again this year. If that’s the case, he would account for 13% of your total innings pitched. The most worked relief pitchers in baseball throw about 80 IP a year. That’s 5% of your total needed. Because Zambrano has already started 3 times, let’s assume if he stays in the RP role for the rest of the season, he will finish with about 100 IP. You have just taken your best pitcher and decided to use him half of the time you were going to use him as a starter.

Now you could argue that Zambrano is not really all that superior to Dempster or Lilly. And that’s fine. Even so, of the 1450 innings you need pitching this season, wouldn’t you want Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, and Wells pitching as many of those as possible? I certainly don’t want Zambrano to only pitch 20-30 innings more than someone like Jeff Smardzija. But that’s exactly what will happen with Zambrano in the bullpen.

Obviously with Lilly returning this weekend, someone had to be the odd man out if you’re going to stick with a 5 man rotation. So what you need to do is take a look at Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Wells, Gorzelanny, and Silva and decide out of this group, which of the 6 you would like to take up the least of the 1450 innings. Without a doubt, the choice is between Gorzelanny and Silva. Silva has been pitching out of his mind lately. In his first 3 starts, his ERA is under 1. It’s hard to find the balance between milking something for as long as you can and taking your money and running away as fast as possible. Realistically, we got Silva because it was the only way to get rid of Bradley (as his old landlord wishes he could). So it’s not like the Cubs were counting on Silva to anchor their rotation. But he has. It’d be hard to send him to the bullpen right now. And Gorzelanny has pitched pretty well too. Pinella said he didn’t want to send Gorzelanny to the bullpen because he doesn’t need another lefty. Ok, I understand both of these dilemma’s. But the solution is not to take one of your best 3 pitchers (and probably the best) and give him less innings over the course of the season. Do you really want Carlos Silva pitching more innings than Carlos Zambrano? Maybe. If 2010 was the first season either of them had ever pitched and all you had to go off of was their first 3 starts. Then it’s a no brainer. Send Zambrano to the bullpen!

But then there’s the other side that says, “Yes, but we need someone to pitch in important innings where we need to protect the lead and get some big outs and I’d rather have Zambrano pitch in those innings than Jeff Gray.” Me too. But we have to look at the season as a whole. It’s easy to feel that way after the Cubs got off to the 5-9 start and the bullpen blew most of those 9 losses. It’s easy to decide to do something crazy like move your ace to the bullpen right after one of any of those losses. But in the long run, does it make sense?

There is a statistic that baseball nerds way smarter than me have formulated that measures a players worth probably as good as any other can as far as how they actually influence the number of wins their team accumulates. It’s called their WAR (wins above replacement). Basically it measures how many wins a specific player contributes to the team more than if they were replaced by another player (albeit, a bad one). Over the last 3 years, here are the Cubs current 6 starters average WAR values:

Zambrano: 2.93
Lilly: 3.46
Wells: 3.20 (only 2009 stats)
Dempster: 4.05 (as starter in 2008-09. Had a -.1 WAR as closer in 2007)
Gorzelanny: 0.70 (Though it was 3.6 in 2007 for Pittsburgh)
Silva: -0.05 (2.6 in 2007, but 2008 and 2009 were so bad he actually lost more than a replacement would have)

So obviously, the most valuable pitchers in the rotation are Dempster, Lilly, Wells, and Zambrano. Zambrano has had a couple of seasons where he had a WAR of over 5, but it’s been a few years since then.

So the question now is, how valuable could Zambrano be in the bullpen? Let’s say he moves to the bullpen and becomes the best in the league. What would his WAR be if that was the case? To get an idea, let’s look at some other WAR values of the seasons of relief pitchers over the last few years.

Great closer seasons:

Eric Gagne, 2003: 4.3
Mariano Rivera, 1996: 5.4
Billy Wagner, 1999: 3.9
Brad Lidge, 2004: 4.2

Set-up men seasons:

Matt Thornton, one of the best set-up men in baseball, had a WAR of 2.7 in 2009.
Octavio Dotel had a 3.8 WAR in 2002 setting up Billy Wagner (but he also had 6 saves in 10 chances- Wagner may have been hurt for part of the season?).
Angel Guzman (Zambrano’s true replacement since he’s out for the year and was the set-up guy last season) had a WAR of 1.4 last season.
Carlos Marmol’s WARs as a set-up man in 2007 and 2008 were 2.8 and 2.2, respectively.

So if I’m reading these numbers right, it appears as if it is possible for a closer to have a pretty high WAR value. However, as a non-closing relief pitcher, even the best will end up with a less valuable WAR value than Zambrano’s worst WAR value over his career as a starter.

So if we were talking about moving Zambrano to the closer role, now the move seems less strange (by the numbers, anyway). But you have to realize that this means that both Gorzelanny and Silva would have to have really solid seasons and a WAR of 2.5 or so to make this work. Gorzelanny has the potential to do so and Silva has done back in 2004, but we saw their most recent 3 year averages.

It just seems that for this move to make sense, too many things have to happen. Silva and Gorzelanny both have to get back to pitching the way they did in their best career years. After 3 starts, so far so good. But it’s been 3 starts! I still think there must be something else going on. I read that the Cubs were “scouting” Braden Looper. I don’t know why he needs to be scouted. He started for the Brewers last season. He’s not a great pitcher by any means- he doesn’t even have a job this season. But he’s been a starter, closer, and reliever in his career and I think would be a better option than any of the Cubs current right handed relief pitchers aside from Marmol. Sign him and send one of the rookies back to the minors.

I still think the Cubs have a chance to turn this season around. The offense will hit better. If Soriano and Soto continue their improvement, you have to think Ramirez is going to break out of his slump soon. If Lee and Byrd have average years for them, that’s a decent lineup.

The Cubs starters have a chance to be near the top of the league. If the Cubs could just figure out some relief pitching, I think they’ll start winning some more games. The relief pitching can’t continue to be this bad. Pretty much anything that could have gone wrong for them, has. Caridad should come back and be decent. Grabow and Marshall should be ok from the left side. Really, the key is that right handed set up man. If Zambrano is going to be that guy for awhile, that should be pretty set.

I think things are about to turn around. Call me crazy.

-John Mark

How You Can Tell McGwire is Back in Baseball

Another day, another Cubs loss. The Cubs are now 5-9.

The Cubs were shutout last night by the Cy Young candidate, Mike Pelfrey. His career 4.49 ERA is deceiving, as he is obviously one of the better pitchers to have ever toed the rubber. Just ask the Cubs. Zambrano continued the string of good starts by Cubs starters by giving up 2 runs over 6 innings and striking out 9. Though it took him about 150 pitches to do so. Congratulations are in order for Jeff Gray, who despite giving up a hit and a walk in his one inning of work managed to complete one of the rare scoreless innings by a Cubs bullpen member. He lowered his ERA to 6.75. Nicely done! John Grabow then showed up and puked all over the 8th inning by giving up a pinch hit two run home run to Fernando “I once hit 2 grand slams in one inning” Tatis.

The Cubs stuck to the recipe last night: Quality start from their pitcher, no offense, bad bullpen. I, for one, like to try new recipes.

Soriano, Fontenot, and Hill managed to get the lone 3 hits for the Cubs. Fontenot was able to ruin the only Cubs scoring opportunity by getting picked off at 2B when Zambrano acted like he was trying to bunt and missed.

Not much else to say about that game. 4 losses in a row now. And the Cubs really haven’t played anyone that great. The Braves (ehhh, average), Reds (vomit- lost 2 of 3), Brewers (won 2 of 3), Astros (lost 2 of 3- which happened to double the Astros win total coming into the series), and Mets (lost first 2 of series). This does not bode well for when the minor league schedule comes to an end.

On a side note, have you noticed how many home runs are being hit this year? I’m starting to wonder if there were more pitchers on the juice than we thought. When you think of steroids in baseball, you usually think of the hitters getting bigger and hitting home runs. I bet there were a healthy number of pitchers who were also using.

By the way- Volquez has been suspended for 50 games but is on the 60 day DL, so he can’t pitch anyway. So really, all this suspension is doing is taking his pay away for 50 games. I don’t see how this is fair. The article says it’s fair because the Reds didn’t do anything wrong and don’t deserved to be punished. But when every other player gets suspended, the team is getting punished as well. When a player throws a punch and is suspended 10 games, the team is punished. If that’s the rationale then they shouldn’t suspend players from games, they should just suspend the players pay while playing. I think Volquez should have to wait until he is activated and able to play to start serving his suspension.

What was I saying? Oh, right- home runs. I know some players can be streaky and hit home runs in bunches, but there are a lot of players that have started out with a lot of home runs. If the pace continued for the whole season, here is what the top 10 leader board for Home Runs would look like after 162 games:

Nelson Cruz- 87
Chase Utley- 81
Vernon Wells- 76
Ty Wiggington- 73
Matt Kemp- 68
Dustin Pedroia- 62
Albert Pujols- 62
Jose Guillen- 58
A bunch tied with 54

That's right, Ty Wiggington is on pace to end up on the cover of MLB 2011: The Show. Those are silly numbers. I didn’t bother to go further because there were too many players on pace to hit over 50 Home Runs. Obviously that won’t happen... right?

-John Mark

April 18-19 (9-4)

How could you watch Jerry Manuel bat Frank Catalanotto clean up and determine that he deserves a chance to keep his job? Seriously?!

The Cardinals followed Saturday's 20 inning marathon with a scary start by Wainwright (3 runs in the 1st & a throw out to right field to nobody) that turned into an absolute gem complete game, 9IP, 9K, and taking another series to lead the Central Division. I didn't watch this game because it was on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball & Joe Morgan is a retarded boob. I had to tune to the KTRS broadcast and deal with Mike Shannon, who either drinks before the game or heavily during the game. Pretty productive day by Ludwick, who is batting an even .300, he had a HR, 2B, 2R, 2RBI, & 3 walks.
The Mets continue their series tonight against the scary "new lineup" Cubs.
Viva Los Mets!!!

The Cardinals continue their series tonight versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. In last night's game we saw Brad Penny give up 2 early runs in the 1st inning. We cannot continue to give up 1st inning runs to teams that have a quality bullpen. But luckily Arizona doesn't have a quality bullpen. So after the Cards tied everything up in the 5th, they just waited for the Arizona bullpen to arrive, 2 IP, 4 Hits, 2 R and that made it 4-2 for Ryan Franklin to come in and pitch a perfect 9th inning for his 5 save of the year. I have no doubt that Franklin will have some ups & downs throughout the season but right now we have no one to take over the closer's role until mid-season when we can make a move.

It seems like the Cubs are pretty much beating themselves. So what's new? When will the second coming begin? Starlin Castro might be called up just to sell some more tickets, as if that's ever a problem for the Cubs. While Andrew Cashner withers away in the minors until he is traded away.

Go Cards!

-Steve

The Baseball Gods Hate Randy Wells

Wow, what a frustrating game to watch. Again. It seems like almost every game this year has had the feel like the Cubs were either in control or were in a good position to win the game. And then they have lost.

Another great effort by a starter was wasted. Randy Wells went 6 innings and only gave up 1 earned run. He lowered his ERA to 2.45. He’s given up 5 ER over 3 starts and has one win to show for it. Last year, he started the season by going 0-3 over his first 7 starts. Started slow last year, right? Nope. Wells gave up 12 runs in 43 innings over those first 7 starts in 2009. That’s a 2.51 ERA. I think I would have packed by glove away and said “Screw it, this is a silly game” and went home. Well Randy, welcome to 2010 where things don’t change.

The Cub offense only managed to put up 1 run against the rookie Mets pitcher, Jon Niese. But it wasn’t like Niese dominated. The Cubs threatened to score pretty much every inning. Here are your Cub base runners per inning:

1st: 1
2nd: 2
3rd: 1
4th: 2 (1st and 3rd, 1 Out. Soto and Theriot both strike out.)
5th: 3 (Bases loaded, 1 Out. Nady strikes out. Ramirez grounds out.)
6th: 2 (Soto scores on a Byrd infield single)
7th: 0
8th: 1
9th: 2

You should not lose a game with those opportunities. Especially when your starter gives up one run over six innings! If baseball ever decides to shorten games to 6 innings, the Cubs will probably be the best team in baseball. Their starters will all pitch complete games and give up about 2 runs. Unfortunately, they play 9 and the Cubs have a bullpen. After six solid innings by Wells, they wasted no time in coming in and sucking. Here’s the Mets’ 7th:

James Russell pitching.
Jose Reyes: hit by pitch (on an 0-2 count)
Gary Matthews Jr: strikes out. 1 Out.
Angel Pagan: Home Run. 3-1 Mets.
Luis Castillo: Lines out. 2 Outs.

*At this point, Pinella decides to bring in Samardzija to face the upcoming right handed hitters. I think we know what’s coming.

Jeff Samardzija pitching.
David Wright: Walks, steals 2nd.
Jason Bay: Doubles, Wright scores. 4-1 Mets.
Jeff Francoeur: Reaches on error by Ramirez.

Sean Marshall pitching.
Ian Davis: Singles, Bay scores. 5-1 Mets.
Wild pitch by Marshall, Francoeur scores. 6-1 Mets.
Rod Barajas: Grounds out.

Game over.

Through 7 Innings:
Randy Wells: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB
Bullpen: 1 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 1 BB

Holy crap. Something has to be done. We knew the bullpen was going to be shaky. Now I’m hoping the bullpen can just get to shaky. They can’t get anyone out. I would not be surprised if Samardzija doesn’t make it through the day without taking a bus back to Iowa. Perhaps they can take a detour and drop him back at Notre Dame. That was a waste of 11 million dollars.

But let’s be honest- the offense was just as bad. Kind of. I mean, they were getting on base. They were getting hits. It’s not like the offense wasn’t working. But it’s like some mental block. Guys get on base and then we can’t even hit a sac fly? 26 men left on base. 26! I watched some of the Cardinal game last night too. You know what the difference is? The Cardinals capitalize. I guarantee the Cardinals do not have more scoring chances than the Cubs do. But when they get them, they take advantage of them and score.

And what the heck is going on with Aramis Ramirez? I’ve never seen him this bad. Another 0 for 4 night and now his average is down to .157. Even Randy Wells had two hits last night!

This is depressing.
-John Mark